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500 million smartphone users will be using a Digital Identity Wallet by 2026

At least 500 million smartphone users will be regularly making verifiable claims using a digital identity wallet (DIW), according to new analysis from the boffins at Gartner.

Identity verification (IDV) in the form of a user taking a picture of their identity document and a selfie is commonly used today. It establishes confidence in the identity of a person during a digital interaction when curated credentials do not exist, are not available or do not provide sufficient assurance. However, due to challenges with the traditional IDV model, solutions based on portable digital identity (PDI) have emerged.

“The market is entering a transition period as PDI solutions are starting to mature, which in the next five years, will reduce the demand for standalone IDV,” said Akif Khan, VP Analyst at Gartner.

The current IDV model of a user being asked to do the ID-plus-selfie process repeatedly, is not ideal. “The processes in place today are focused and limited to core identity data (name, date of birth, address etc.). As more and more processes move online, there is a need to tie many other attributes to a user’s identity, such as educational or workplace qualifications, proof of employment, not to mention healthcare data,” said Khan.

A PDI is best defined as a digital identity that contains all the necessary attributes for identifying someone in the digital world. PDI also means that the user maintains some level of control over security and privacy.

The principle of PDI is that the user formerly proves their identity with a trusted entity, and once authenticated, it is recorded as an identity assertion. That identity assertation is either stored with the party that verified their identity (centralized model) or saved in a DIW on their smartphone (decentralized model). Decentralized models also offer the benefit of using verifiable credentials, which allow users to make assertions without revealing more data than they need to – for example, proving that you are over 18 years of age without sharing your date of birth.

Governments are already taking action. The European Commission (via eIDAS Regulation) will require all EU member states to make a DIW available to citizens by 2026. However, many vendor products are available today that enable organizations to benefit from PDI for targeted use cases.

“Chief information security officers (CISOs) do not need to wait for a government to provide all citizens with a PDI solution,” said Khan. “For example, in the workforce, CISOs can use a readily available decentralized identity wallet product and issue it to their employees. The wallet could then be integrated into their employee onboarding, account recovery and IT help desk workflows. This is ultimately improving security by introducing strong authentication and improving UX by removing the need for repeated IDV.”

AI-powered malicious attacks are now a top emerging risk, says study

Concern about artificial intelligence (AI)-enhanced malicious attacks ascended to the top of the Gartner emerging risk rankings in the first quarter of 2024.

“The prospect of malicious actions enabled by AI-assisted tools is concerning risk leaders worldwide,” said Gamika Takkar, director, research in the Gartner Risk & Audit Practice. “The relative ease of use and quality of AI-assisted tools, such as voice and image generation, increase the ability to carry out malicious attacks with wide-ranging consequences.”

During the first quarter of this year, Gartner surveyed 345 senior enterprise risk executives to capture and benchmark their top 20 emerging risks and provide leaders a view of their causes and potential consequences.

Risks related to AI captured the top two rankings in the 1Q24 survey (see Table 1) with AI-enhanced malicious attacks cited as the top emerging risk and AI-assisted misinformation also causing concern. Escalating political polarization, which entered the tracker for the first time in 4Q23, dropped from the second most cited concern to third place.

Table 1: Top Five Most Commonly Cited Emerging Risks in Q1 2024
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Source: Gartner (May 2024)

One of the key drivers of AI-enabled attacks and misinformation is the rapidly expanding access to its capabilities. AI enhancement can provide malicious code, and facilitate phishing and social engineering, which enables better intrusion, increased credibility and more damaging attacks.

“Its low cost and rapid growth also expose users to the technology who have little awareness on how to recognize when AI-enabled tools are providing valid vs. false or misrepresented information,” said Takkar.

The potential impacts of AI-enhanced attacks and misinformation are far-reaching and consequential to reputation, productivity and the ability of organizations to respond. Increased breaches and disclosure requirements can erode trust in an organization and brand among clients, consumers and partners.

“The speed and quality of AI-enhanced attacks and misinformation also hinder information security teams’ ability to respond and adapt to the new security landscape, further amplifying its vulnerabilities,” said Takkar.Gartner clients can read more in 1Q24 Emerging Risk Report. Nonclients can read: 1Q24 Emerging Risk Trends.