If 2024 and 2025 were about interpreting the FCA’s Consumer Duty, 2026 will be about proving it. Political pressure to stimulate growth may continue and talk of “reducing burdens” will persist. But firms should expect the operational reality to move in the opposite direction: more targeted evidence requests, more granular scrutiny and less tolerance for “we think we’re doing the right thing” without demonstrable proof.
Joe Norburn, CEO of TCC Group (TCC, Momenta and Recordsure), sets out the predictions for how evidencing compliance will evolve in 2026…
1) “Mixed signals” might continue, but the direction is clear
The FCA is increasingly operating an increasingly outcome-focused model of supervision built on data, not intention. In practice, that means firms must be ready to demonstrate, often at short notice, how they are measuring, monitoring and consistently delivering good outcomes.
While 42% of respondents in a recent poll conducted by TCC Group believe the regulatory environment is unlikely to change significantly, the FCA’s use of tools such as S165 mandatory information requests and bespoke data demands are set to remain central as it tests what happens in real customer journeys, not just what sits within policy documents.
Prediction: In 2026, firms that treat Consumer Duty evidence as a periodic exercise will be on the backfoot. The winners will recognise that “evidence readiness” is a continuous operational state, not a quarterly task.
2) The standard of proof will rise again
The regulatory intent remains the same but the expectation of “principles with proof” is hardening. Across the sector, long standing evidential gaps, missing audit trails, inconsistent records and incomplete documentation continue to create avoidable risk. Even when firms have delivered appropriate outcomes, a weak evidence chain can turn good practice into a regulatory vulnerability.
TCC’s data shows the tension clearly: 17% of businesses now review more than 10% of interactions (significantly above the historic baseline), yet 30% still do not record all customer conversations, and 35% only record and assess a small fraction of client interactions.
Prediction: In 2026, the FCA will pay closer attention to how reliably audit trails and evidence can be produced, not simply whether a firm believes it has delivered good customer outcomes.
3) The confidence gap in outcome testing will become more visible
While 82% of businesses report confidence in their ability to evidence that known vulnerable customers were treated appropriately, the operational foundations often tell a different story. If conversations aren’t consistently recorded or if assessments rely on small samples alone, the bigger compliance picture remains unclear. Post-interaction surveys and structured comprehension testing are among some of the most reliable methods for validating understanding but are still underused.
Prediction: The regulator will push firms to demonstrate not just procedural compliance but also proven customer comprehension and absence of detriment, supported by consistent and retrievable evidence.
4) Manual compliance models will struggle to hold up under 2026 demands
Traditional outcome testing relies on labour-intensive manual sampling. Most compliance teams simply do not have the capacity to review interactions at statistically meaningful levels. As evidential expectations mature, the gap between what firms need to evidence and what they can evidence manually will widen.
Prediction: By late 2026, “manual-first” models will increasingly be viewed as insufficient and dated for larger firms and complex advice/service models, particularly where volumes are high, and risk is unevenly distributed.
5) Predictive AI will become a core compliance capability (with humans firmly in the loop)
As evidential expectations rise, technology, specifically predictive AI, will shift from being seen as “innovation” to becoming part of critical compliance infrastructure. Unlike generative AI tools, predictive models can surface risk patterns, identify missing steps and analyse entire populations of interactions. When used to triage effectively, they allow human specialists to focus on the conversations and files that require their expertise, while creating stronger and more consistent audit trails without expanding headcount.
Prediction: The firms best positioned for 2026 will use predictive AI tools to move from low-volume sampling to population-level insight, improving response speed to FCA queries and strengthening internal decision-making.
The defining capability of 2026: evidence readiness
In 2026, compliance leaders won’t be judged on good intentions. Instead, they’ll be judged on the quality and consistency of their evidence. Firms that invest now in data quality, evidencing frameworks and scalable outcome testing will not only reduce regulatory risk but also unlock operational efficiencies and improved customer outcomes.
In the FCA’s maturing model, being able to say “we can show you” will be the real competitive advantage as firms head into the new year.
*All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from TCC Group. Total sample size was 20 compliance professionals within the finance space across various sectors. The survey was carried out online.
